Complications risk (retinopathy)

by VBH

The following is a table showing the risks of retinopathy based on an individual’s HbA1c level over a number of years. This data is reproduced with the kind permission of Ron Sebol who collated the data.  This data was also used in Gretchen Becker’s book “Type 2 Diabetes – The First Year”

So for example, an individual with an HbA1c of 9% will have a 2.58% risk of retinopathy after 2 years. After 15 years, there is an 88.69% chance of retinopathy

Year HbA1c
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2 1.25 1.28 1.72 2.58 3.16 4.54 6.22
3 1.33 1.69 3.15 4.7 7.18 11.52 16.54
4 1.41 2.09 4.11 6.69 11.26 18.14 26.82
5 1.49 2.52 5.25 9.19 16.37 27.03 40.57
6 1.58 3.05 6.64 12.3 22.68 38.53 57.67
7 1.66 3.64 8.47 16.19 30.8 52.87 76.48
8 1.76 4.14 10.42 21.22 41.07 69.14 91.33
9 1.85 4.61 12.87 27.98 53.36 85.26 100
10 1.95 5.33 15.99 35.79 67.08 96.5
11 2.04 6.24 19.37 44.57 81.1 100
12 2.15 7.14 23.44 54.86 92.6
13 2.25 8.15 28.17 66.12 100
14 2.36 9.28 33.63 77.73
15 2.47 10.53 39.85 88.69

So this data demonstrates the importance of glycemic control for diabetics.  By reducing the A1c we can see the reduction in risks of complications.  Over a period of 15 years a diabetic with an HbA1c of 7% has 4 times more risk of developing retinopathy than a diabetic with an HbA1c of 6%. If the HbA1c is 8% over that time period, then the risks are 16 times greater.  As can be seen from the table, higher HbA1c levels guarantee retinopathy after a number of years.

For further information regarding Hba1c I append this table which shows a correlation between the Hba1c and the blood glucose levels you will be running to achieve that Hba1c