by VBH
The following is a table showing the risks of retinopathy based on an individual’s HbA1c level over a number of years. This data is reproduced with the kind permission of Ron Sebol who collated the data. This data was also used in Gretchen Becker’s book “Type 2 Diabetes – The First Year”
So for example, an individual with an HbA1c of 9% will have a 2.58% risk of retinopathy after 2 years. After 15 years, there is an 88.69% chance of retinopathy
| Year | HbA1c | ||||||
| 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | |
| 2 | 1.25 | 1.28 | 1.72 | 2.58 | 3.16 | 4.54 | 6.22 |
| 3 | 1.33 | 1.69 | 3.15 | 4.7 | 7.18 | 11.52 | 16.54 |
| 4 | 1.41 | 2.09 | 4.11 | 6.69 | 11.26 | 18.14 | 26.82 |
| 5 | 1.49 | 2.52 | 5.25 | 9.19 | 16.37 | 27.03 | 40.57 |
| 6 | 1.58 | 3.05 | 6.64 | 12.3 | 22.68 | 38.53 | 57.67 |
| 7 | 1.66 | 3.64 | 8.47 | 16.19 | 30.8 | 52.87 | 76.48 |
| 8 | 1.76 | 4.14 | 10.42 | 21.22 | 41.07 | 69.14 | 91.33 |
| 9 | 1.85 | 4.61 | 12.87 | 27.98 | 53.36 | 85.26 | 100 |
| 10 | 1.95 | 5.33 | 15.99 | 35.79 | 67.08 | 96.5 | |
| 11 | 2.04 | 6.24 | 19.37 | 44.57 | 81.1 | 100 | |
| 12 | 2.15 | 7.14 | 23.44 | 54.86 | 92.6 | ||
| 13 | 2.25 | 8.15 | 28.17 | 66.12 | 100 | ||
| 14 | 2.36 | 9.28 | 33.63 | 77.73 | |||
| 15 | 2.47 | 10.53 | 39.85 | 88.69 | |||
So this data demonstrates the importance of glycemic control for diabetics. By reducing the A1c we can see the reduction in risks of complications. Over a period of 15 years a diabetic with an HbA1c of 7% has 4 times more risk of developing retinopathy than a diabetic with an HbA1c of 6%. If the HbA1c is 8% over that time period, then the risks are 16 times greater. As can be seen from the table, higher HbA1c levels guarantee retinopathy after a number of years.